Beverage manufacturer
Sales planning and forecasting with predictive planning
Starting point
- Long production times (at least 9 months) require accurate forecasting and planning of delivery quantities to avoid shortages
- Detailed product structure with variants and different packaging sizes
- Planning of mix displays with different products requires a bill of materials breakdown for the quantity planning of products
- Extensive, multi-stage costing schemes for price calculations require a technical solution
Procedure
- Agile gathering and implementation of requirements in small teams
- Training of employees
- Workshop with "Lessons Learned" and definition of necessary adjustments
- After 12 months, evaluation of the robustness of individual statistical models against changed conditions and adjustment of forecasting processes
Features/Project outcome
- Predictive planning solution
- Integration of the rolling 12-month sales forecast, 24-month production forecast, business year planning, and operational systems
- Hybrid forecast combining statistical prediction and manual adjustments to the forecast with indicators for forecasting trends
- Forecasting of sales quantities over 24 months based on statistical models (actual quantities, planned promotions)
- Conditions planning at the customer and product level, differentiated over the planning period
Customer benefits
- Optimisation of inventory levels and costs
- Just the improved planning of small bottle packages (0.2 l) saved project costs in one year through lower inventory costs
- Qualitatively better plan/forecast (historical plan-to-actual comparison)
- Accelerated planning processes through integration of rolling forecast, business year planning, and operational systems, along with a forecast suggestion
- Rapid consideration of changed conditions through simulation of quantities and conditions

Sascha Mertens | Senior Manager / Prokurist