Beverage manufacturer

Sales planning and forecasting with predictive planning

Starting point

  • Long production times (at least 9 months) require accurate forecasting and planning of delivery quantities to avoid shortages
  • Detailed product structure with variants and different packaging sizes
  • Planning of mix displays with different products requires a bill of materials breakdown for the quantity planning of products
  • Extensive, multi-stage costing schemes for price calculations require a technical solution

Procedure

  • Agile gathering and implementation of requirements in small teams
  • Training of employees
  • Workshop with "Lessons Learned" and definition of necessary adjustments
  • After 12 months, evaluation of the robustness of individual statistical models against changed conditions and adjustment of forecasting processes

Features/Project outcome

  • Predictive planning solution
  • Integration of the rolling 12-month sales forecast, 24-month production forecast, business year planning, and operational systems
  • Hybrid forecast combining statistical prediction and manual adjustments to the forecast with indicators for forecasting trends
  • Forecasting of sales quantities over 24 months based on statistical models (actual quantities, planned promotions)
  • Conditions planning at the customer and product level, differentiated over the planning period

Customer benefits

  • Optimisation of inventory levels and costs
  • Just the improved planning of small bottle packages (0.2 l) saved project costs in one year through lower inventory costs
  • Qualitatively better plan/forecast (historical plan-to-actual comparison)
  • Accelerated planning processes through integration of rolling forecast, business year planning, and operational systems, along with a forecast suggestion
  • Rapid consideration of changed conditions through simulation of quantities and conditions
Sascha Mertens | Senior Manager / Prokurist